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CRAFTED PROOF
INSIGHTS · 17 PAPERS PUBLISHED IN 2026

Readings from the field.

Category analysis built on data we've read ourselves, with a source under every number.

When a paper puts a number on the future, the next one grades it.

FEATURED · CATEGORY INTELLIGENCE Nº 01 · AUG 2026

The 2028 wave

Spirits is sitting in a gap between Millennials and Gen Z. Relief starts when the largest cohort in US history turns 21 in 2028. Their money arrives on a different schedule.

4.79M
TURN 21 IN 2028
0.70×
GEN Z SPEND VS AVG
+18.8%
40–59 BAND, TO 2046
READ THE EXCERPT → PDF · 21 PP
FIG. 03 · ALCOHOL SPEND PER HOUSEHOLD, BY AGE OF HEAD
A new legal drinker spends 46 cents on the peak-age dollar.
$900 $450 $382 $677 $836 $710 $318 <25 25–34 45–54 55–64 75+
SOURCE: BLS CONSUMER EXPENDITURE SURVEY, 2024 · ALL-HOUSEHOLD AVERAGE $643
CATEGORY REVIEW · TEQUILA · AUG 2026

The state of tequila

Record units behind falling prices. In the same year, Americans paid less per drink and bought more drinks. Plus a six-move playbook for craft operators.

$5.29B
L52W DOLLARS · ▼3.7%
288.1M
UNITS · ALL-TIME RECORD
-14%
AVG PRICE, 2 YRS
REQUEST THE PAPER → PDF · 28 PP
SCENARIO MODEL · TEQUILA · JUL 2026

High proof: growth analysis and mid-year scorecard

The category's fastest-growing niche hits its first real test. We graded our own March forecast line by line, including a number the earlier edition got wrong.

$26.2M
L52W · +13.3% YOY
-5.3%
VELOCITY YOY
77%
AF SHARE, WAS 90%
REQUEST THE PAPER → PDF · 8 PP
CATEGORY STANDARD · TEQUILA · SEP 2026

The additive-free endgame

A fifth of the super-premium shelf, holding a $42 ring while everything under it gets cheaper. Then the regulator came for the claim, and demand kept going anyway.

$475M
AF DOLLARS · +72% / 2 YRS
20.7%
OF SUPER-PREMIUM
1.49×
PRICE PREMIUM IN TIER
REQUEST THE PAPER → PDF · 8 PP
NEW ITEMS · TEQUILA & WHISKY · AUG 2026

The innovation freeze

479 new tequilas launched in 2022. Nine launched last quarter, and the shelf never got smaller. Whiskey ran this arc first, so it shows what comes next.

9
NEW ITEMS, Q1 2026
-71%
ANNUAL ENTRIES
$4K
MEDIAN CLASS-OF-'22 ITEM
REQUEST THE PAPER → PDF · 7 PP
SHELF DYNAMICS · WHISKY · SEP 2026

The allocation thaw

For a decade the most hunted bourbons lived on lottery lists. That era is ending, and the shelf is where the glut is paying out. Availability up, price holding.

+70%
TOP GAINER $, ON +46% TDP
$115M
ADDED BY ONE COMPLEX
8 / 10
TOP GAINERS ARE TROPHIES
REQUEST THE PAPER → PDF · 7 PP
ELEVEN MORE PAPERS

The rest of the 2026 library

The $30 ceiling. The premium unwind. The hundred-proof turn. The age-statement dividend. The mini economy. The flavor treadmill. Plus full category reviews for both categories.

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